2022 Hurricane Season Forecast

5/9/2022 (Permalink)

After an active 2021 Atlantic hurricane season, Colorado State University (CSU) predicts that the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season will again be “above-average” with major hurricanes making landfall. The university team projected nine hurricanes, four of which are predicted to be major hurricanes.  CSU bases its hurricane season predictions on models that use 40 years of historical data and evaluates conditions, including:

• El Nino
• Sea surface temperatures
• Sea level pressures
• Vertical wind shear levels (change in speed and direction of winds with height in the atmosphere)
• Other factors

The CSU team cites the likely absence of El Niño as the major reason for the “above average” hurricane season. When El Niño is present in the Pacific, its wind shear force can literally break down hurricanes as they form in the Caribbean and Atlantic.

The 2022 hurricane season’s activity will be about 130% of the average season, according to the CSU forecast. Last year’s hurricane season saw about 140% of the average season.

This year’s hurricane season is exhibiting characteristics similar to 1996, 2001, 2008, 2011, 2017 and 2021. All had “above-average” hurricane activity per the Department of Atmospheric Science.

Although Sussex County has not experienced a hurricane since 2022 with Irene causing two deaths in our state.  It was almost seventy years between Irene and Hazel – which hit Delaware in 1954.  The point is that we rarely see severe hurricanes causing damage in our local area – however the worst thing you can do is lull yourself into a false sense of security…Always be prepared!  SERVPRO of Sussex County stands ready to help in the event of any storm – especially the large ones.  In fact; our franchise sent a team to New Orleans after Katrina.  Any storm that makes landfall in close proximity to our coast will cause at the very least flooding concerns.  Be safe!